Blindside How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics,9780815729914

Blindside How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics

by
ISBN13: 9780815729914
ISBN10: 081572991X
Format: Paperback
Pub. Date: 2008-09-03
Publisher(s): Brookings Institution Press
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Summary

A Host of Catastrophes, Natural and Otherwise, as well as some pleasant surprises have caught governments and societies unprepared in recent decades. September 11 is only the most obvious example among many unforeseen events that have changed, even redefined, our lives. We can expect more surprises in the future.

Table of Contents

The Challenges of Uncertainty: An Introductionp. 1
Thinking about Catastrophep. 7
Cases: Looking Back
Slow Surprise: The Dynamics of Technology Synergyp. 23
U.S. Intelligence Estimates of Soviet Collapse: Reality and Perceptionp. 29
Econoshocks: The East Asian Crisis Casep. 42
Cases: Looking Ahead
The Once and Future DARPAp. 57
Fueled Again? In Search of Energy Securityp. 71
Emerging Infectious Diseases: Are We Prepared?p. 82
Forecasting
Ahead of the Curve: Anticipating Strategic Surprisep. 93
Can Scenarios Help Policymakers Be Both Bold and Careful?p. 109
Innovation and Adaptation: IT Examplesp. 120
What Could Be
Cassandra versus Pollyannap. 129
Global Discontinuitiesp. 143
American Scenariosp. 153
Afterwordp. 169
Notesp. 173
Contributorsp. 181
Indexp. 183
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

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