Producing Liquid Fuels from Coal Prospects and Policy Issues

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Format: Paperback
Pub. Date: 2008-12-16
Publisher(s): RAND Corporation
List Price: $35.66

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Summary

Record world oil prices have prompted renewed interest in producing liquid fuels from coal. The United States leads the world in recoverable coal reserves. Moreover, the technology for converting coal to liquid fuels already exists, and production costs appear competitive at prices well below current levels. Yet, despite its promise, private investment in coal-to-liquids (CTL) is being impeded by three uncertainties: where oil prices are heading, what it actually costs to produce coal-derived fuels, and how greenhouse-gas emissions will be regulated. A domestic CTL industry could produce as much as 3 million barrels per day of transportation fuels by 2030. Having such an industry would yield important energy-security benefits, most notably a lowering of world oil prices and a decrease in wealth transfers from oil users to oil producers. But establishing a large CTL industry also raises important policy and environmental issues associated with climate change, coal mining, and water consumption. Weighing both benefits and costs, it makes sense for the United States to pursue an insurance, or hedge, strategy that promotes the early construction and operation of a limited number of commercial CTL plants and that establishes the foundation for managing associated greenhouse-gas emissions, both in a way that reduces uncertainties and emphasizes future capabilities.

Table of Contents

Prefacep. iii
Figuresp. xi
Tablesp. xiii
Summaryp. xv
Acknowledgmentsp. xxvii
Abbreviationsp. xxix
Introductionp. 1
About This Bookp. 2
The Coal Resource Basep. 5
The Adequacy of the U.S. Coal Resource Basep. 6
The Distribution of U.S. Coal Reserves and Productionp. 9
Coal Variabilityp. 10
Mine Sizep. 12
Policy Implications of the Coal Resource Basep. 12
Coal-to-Liquids Technologiesp. 15
The Fischer-Tropsch Coal-to-Liquids Approachp. 15
The Methanol-to-Gasoline Coal-to-Liquids Approachp. 23
The Direct Coal Liquefaction Approachp. 26
Baseline Greenhouse-Gas Emissions from Production of Coal-Derived Liquid Fuelsp. 31
Carbon Capture and Sequestrationp. 32
Alternative Carbon-Management Optionsp. 37
Technical Viability and Commercial Readinessp. 41
Production Costsp. 42
Timeline for Coal-to-Liquids Developmentp. 46
Other Unconventional Fuelsp. 49
Commercially Ready Unconventional Fuelsp. 50
Emerging Unconventional Fuelsp. 52
Summaryp. 57
Benefits of Coal-to-Liquids Developmentp. 59
Economic Profitsp. 60
Reductions in the World Price of Oilp. 61
National Security Benefitsp. 66
Improved Petroleum Supply Chainp. 67
Oil-Supply Disruption Benefitsp. 68
Employment Benefitsp. 69
Confounding or Inconclusive Argumentsp. 70
The Economic Value of a Domestic Coal-to-Liquids Industryp. 71
Critical Policy Issues for Coal-to-Liquids Developmentp. 73
Environmental Impacts of Coal-to-Liquids Productionp. 73
Impediments to Private-Sector Investmentp. 81
Designing Incentives to Encourage Private Investmentp. 85
Designing an Effective Long-Term Public-Private Relationshipp. 86
Assessing Financial Effects Under Conditions of Uncertaintyp. 88
Findings and Policy Implicationsp. 91
Promoting Competitionp. 100
Summaryp. 101
Moving Forward with a Coal-to-Liquids Development Effortp. 103
Prevailing Uncertaintiesp. 103
The Military Perspectivep. 104
Federal Policy Optionsp. 106
An Insurance Policyp. 109
Air Force Options for Coal-to-Liquids Industrial Developmentp. 113
Scoping Federal Efforts: How Much Is Enough?p. 117
A Stable Framework for Reducing World Oil Pricesp. 118
Appendixes
Cost-Estimation Methodology and Assumptionsp. 119
Greenhouse-Gas Emissions: Supporting Analysisp. 123
A Model of the Global Liquid-Fuel Marketp. 137
Referencesp. 155
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

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