Business Forecasting,9780130878106

Business Forecasting

by ; ;
Edition: 7th
ISBN13: 9780130878106
ISBN10: 0130878103
Format: Hardcover
Pub. Date: 2001-01-01
Publisher(s): PRENTICE HALL
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Summary

For undergraduate and graduate courses in Business Forecasting, found in Decision Science and Economic departments. This best-selling text continues to be written in a simple, straightforward style and to make extensive use of practical business examples. Many exercises and forty-four cases are included to provide the link between theoretical concepts and their real-world applications. Statistical packages (Excel and Minitab) are referenced throughout.

Table of Contents

Preface xiii
Introduction to Forecasting
1(12)
History of Forecasting
1(1)
Need for Forecasting
1(2)
Types of Forecasts
3(1)
Macroeconomic Forecasting
4(1)
Choosing a Forecasting Method
4(1)
Forecasting Steps
4(2)
Managing the Forecasting Process
6(1)
Computer Forecasting Packages
6(1)
Forecasting Example
7(1)
Summary
8(1)
Mr. Tux
9(1)
Consumer Credit Counseling
9(1)
Minitab Applications
10(1)
Excel Applications
11(1)
References and Selected Bibliography
12(1)
A Review of Basic Statistical Concepts
13(40)
Describing Data with Numerical Summaries
13(4)
Displays of Numerical Information
17(3)
Probability Distributions
20(3)
Sampling Distributions
23(2)
Inference from a Sample
25(4)
Estimation
25(1)
Hypothesis Testing
26(3)
Correlation Analysis
29(5)
Scatter Diagrams
29(3)
Correlation Coefficient
32(2)
Fitting a Straight Line
34(4)
Assessing Normality
38(1)
Application to Management
39(1)
Glossary
40(1)
Key Formulas
40(1)
Problems
41(5)
Alcam Electronics
46(1)
Mr. Tux
47(1)
Alomega Food Stores
48(1)
Minitab Applications
49(2)
Excel Applications
51(1)
References and Selected Bibliography
52(1)
Exploring Data Patterns and Choosing a Forecasting Technique
53(42)
Exploring Time Series Data Patterns
54(2)
Exploring Data Patterns with Autocorrelation Analysis
56(13)
Are the Data Random?
61(1)
Do the Data Have a Trend?
62(6)
Are the Data Seasonal?
68(1)
Choosing a Forecasting Technique
69(5)
Forecasting Techniques for Stationary Data
70(1)
Forecasting Techniques for Data with a Trend
71(1)
Forecasting Techniques for Data with Seasonality
71(1)
Forecasting Techniques for Cyclical Series
72(1)
Other Factors to Consider When Choosing a Forecasting Technique
72(1)
Empirical Evaluation of Forecasting Methods
73(1)
Measuring Forecasting Error
74(3)
Determining the Adequacy of a Forecasting Technique
77(1)
Application to Management
78(1)
Glossary
79(1)
Key Formulas
80(1)
Problems
81(4)
Murphy Brothers Furniture
85(2)
Mr. Tux
87(1)
Consumer Credit Counseling
88(1)
Alomega Food Stores
89(1)
Minitab Applications
89(2)
Excel Applications
91(2)
References and Selected Bibliography
93(2)
Moving Averages and Smoothing Methods
95(48)
Naive Models
96(3)
Forecasting Methods Based on Averaging
99(8)
Simple Averages
99(2)
Moving Averages
101(3)
Double Moving Averages
104(3)
Exponential Smoothing Methods
107(16)
Exponential Smoothing Adjusted for Trend: Holt's Method
114(3)
Exponential Smoothing Adjusted for Trend and Seasonal Variation: Winters' Method
117(6)
Application to Management
123(1)
Glossary
124(1)
Key Formulas
124(2)
Problems
126(5)
The Solar Alternative Company
131(1)
Mr. Tux
132(1)
Consumer Credit Counseling
133(1)
Five-Year Revenue Projection for Downtown Radiology
133(6)
Minitab Applications
139(2)
Excel Applications
141(1)
References and Selected Bibliography
142(1)
Time Series and Their Components
143(50)
Decomposition
144(3)
Trend
147(6)
Additional Trend Curves
150(3)
Forecasting Trend
153(1)
Seasonality
153(5)
Seasonally Adjusted Data
158(1)
Cyclical and Irregular Variations
158(6)
Forecasting a Seasonal Time Series
164(1)
The Census II Decomposition Method
165(2)
Application to Management
167(1)
Appendix: Price Index
168(2)
Glossary
170(1)
Key Formulas
170(1)
Problems
171(7)
The Small Engine Doctor
178(1)
Mr. Tux
179(4)
Consumer Credit Counseling
183(1)
AAA Washington
183(2)
Alomega Food Stores
185(2)
Minitab Applications
187(2)
Excel Applications
189(3)
References and Selected Bibliography
192(1)
Simple Linear Regression
193(48)
Regression Line
193(5)
Standard Error of the Estimate
198(1)
Forecasting Y
199(3)
Decomposition of Variance
202(3)
Coefficient of Determination
205(3)
Hypothesis Testing
208(2)
Analysis of Residuals
210(3)
Computer Output
213(2)
Variable Transformations
215(4)
Application to Management
219(2)
Glossary
221(1)
Key Formulas
221(1)
Problems
222(9)
Tiger Transport
231(1)
Butcher Products, Inc.
232(2)
Ace Manufacturing
234(1)
Mr. Tux
235(1)
Consumer Credit Counseling
235(1)
Minitab Applications
236(2)
Excel Applications
238(2)
References and Selected Bibliography
240(1)
Multiple Regression Analysis
241(53)
Several Predictor Variables
241(1)
Correlation Matrix
242(1)
Multiple Regression Model
243(2)
Statistical Model for Multiple Regression
244(1)
Interpreting Regression Coefficients
245(1)
Inference for Multiple Regression Models
246(5)
Standard Error of the Estimate
247(1)
Significance of the Regression
248(2)
Individual Predictor Variable
250(1)
Forecast of a Future Response
251(1)
Computer Output
251(1)
Dummy Variables
252(4)
Multicollinearity
256(3)
Selecting the ``Best'' Regression Equation
259(7)
All Possible Regressions
261(2)
Stepwise Regression
263(3)
Final Notes on Stepwise Regression
266(1)
Regression Diagnostics and Residual Analysis
266(2)
Forecasting Caveats
268(1)
Overfitting
268(1)
Useful Regressions, Large F Ratios
269(1)
Application to Management
269(2)
Glossary
271(1)
Key Formulas
271(1)
Problems
272(8)
The Bond Market
280(2)
Fantasy Baseball (A)
282(6)
Fantasy Baseball (B)
288(3)
Minitab Applications
291(1)
Excel Applications
292(1)
References and Selected Bibliography
293(1)
Regression with Time Series Data
294(52)
Time Series Data and the Problem of Autocorrelation
294(4)
Durbin-Watson Test for Serial Correlation
298(3)
Solutions to Autocorrelation Problems
301(12)
Model Specification Error (Omitting a Variable)
302(2)
Regression with Differences
304(5)
Generalized Differences and an Iterative Approach
309(3)
Autoregressive Models
312(1)
Time Series Data and the Problem of Heteroscedasticity
313(3)
Using Regression to Forecast Seasonal Data
316(3)
Econometric Forecasting
319(1)
Application to Management
320(1)
Glossary
320(1)
Key Formulas
320(2)
Problems
322(7)
Company of Your Choice
329(1)
Business Activity Index for Spokane County
329(4)
Restaurant Sales
333(2)
Mr. Tux
335(2)
Consumer Credit Counseling
337(2)
AAA Washington
339(2)
Alomega Food Stores
341(1)
Minitab Applications
342(1)
Excel Applications
343(2)
References and Selected Bibliography
345(1)
The Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Methodology
346(75)
Box-Jenkins Methodology
346(8)
Autoregressive Models
351(1)
Moving Average Models
352(2)
Autoregressive Moving Average Models
354(1)
Summary
354(1)
Implementing the Model-Building Strategy
354(23)
Model Identification
354(2)
Model Estimation
356(1)
Model Checking
357(1)
Forecasting with the Model
358(19)
Final Comments
377(1)
Model Selection Criteria
377(2)
Models for Seasonal Data
379(12)
Simple Exponential Smoothing and an ARIMA Model
391(1)
Advantages and Disadvantages of ARIMA Models
391(1)
Application to Management
392(1)
Glossary
393(1)
Key Formulas
393(1)
Problems
394(10)
Restaurant Sales
404(1)
Mr. Tux
405(2)
Consumer Credit Counseling
407(1)
The Lydia E. Pinkham Medicine Company
407(3)
City of College Station
410(3)
UPS Air Finance Division
413(3)
Minitab Applications
416(2)
Excel Applications
418(1)
References and Selected Bibliography
419(2)
Judgmental Elements in Forecasting
421(17)
Growth Curves
422(2)
The Delphi Method
424(1)
Scenario Writing
425(1)
Combining Forecasts
426(1)
Forecasting and Neural Networks
427(2)
Summary of Judgmental Forecasting
429(1)
Other Techniques Useful in Forecasting
430(3)
Key Formulas
433(1)
Golden Gardens Restaurant
434(1)
The Lydia E. Pinkham Medicine Company Revisited
434(3)
References and Selected Bibliography
437(1)
Managing the Forecasting Process
438(19)
The Forecasting Process
438(1)
Monitoring Forecasts
439(4)
Forecasting Steps Reviewed
443(1)
Forecasting Responsibility
444(1)
Forecasting Costs
445(1)
Forecasting and the MIS System
445(1)
Selling Management on Forecasting
446(1)
The Future of Forecasting
446(1)
Boundary Electronics
447(1)
Busby Associates
447(4)
Consumer Credit Counseling
451(1)
Mr. Tux
452(1)
Alomega Food Stores
453(1)
References and Selected Bibliography
454(3)
Appendix A Derivations 457(2)
Appendix B Data for Case Study 7.1 459(2)
Appendix C Tables 461(11)
Appendix D Data Sets and Databases 472(21)
Index 493

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